Edge

Edge is your mathematical advantage over the market. It's the difference between your estimated probability and the implied probability of the odds. Without edge, you're just paying vig to gamble.

Calculating Edge

Edge = Your Probability − Market Implied Probability

Example:

• Market: Chiefs -150 (60% implied)
• Your model: Chiefs win 68% of the time
• Edge: +8%

If your probability estimate is correct, this bet has positive expected value.

Edge vs Expected Value

Edge and EV are related but distinct:

Concept	Definition	Example
Edge	Your probability advantage	+8% above market
EV	Expected profit per dollar	+$0.13 per $1 bet
ROI	Expected return on investment	+13%

They're all measuring the same thing from different angles.

How Much Edge Do You Need?

To overcome the vig, you need edge that exceeds the house cut:

Market Vig	Required Edge to Break Even
4.5% (-110/-110)	>2.25%
8% (props)	>4%
20% (futures)	>10%

This is why sharps focus on low-vig markets (sides, totals) rather than high-vig markets (parlays, props).

Sources of Edge

Where does edge come from?

Information edge: You know something the market doesn't (injury intel, weather analysis).

Model edge: Your probability estimates are more accurate than the market's.

Speed edge: You react to information faster than lines update (stale lines).

Structural edge: Market inefficiencies due to limits, timing, or segmentation.

Measuring Edge Over Time

You can't know your edge on any single bet—outcomes are binary. But over hundreds of bets:

CLV (Closing Line Value): If you consistently beat the closing line, you have edge.

Long-term ROI: Positive returns over large samples indicate edge.

Win rate vs required rate: Winning more than vig requires = evidence of edge.

Edge and Sizing

Once you've identified edge, the Kelly Criterion tells you how to size:

• Bigger edge → Bigger bet
• Smaller edge → Smaller bet
• No edge → No bet

Professional bettors treat edge identification and position sizing as two separate disciplines.

PriceArb and Edge Detection

Our dashboards identify potential edge by comparing:

• Live market prices
• Historical probabilities from similar situations

When market price diverges significantly from historical base rates, there may be edge available.

Related Terms

• Expected Value — The monetary value of edge
• CLV — How to measure if you actually have edge
• Vig — The edge you're trying to overcome
• Sharp — Bettors who consistently find edge