Opening Line
The opening line (or "opener") is the first betting line posted for an event. It's the starting point before market action moves the number toward its final closing line.
Opening Line Timing
Different books post openers at different times:
| Source | Timing | Sharpness |
|---|---|---|
| Offshore sharp books | Sunday night (for next week NFL) | Very sharp |
| Pinnacle | Early in the week | Sharp |
| US books | Monday-Tuesday | Variable |
| Some apps | Day before game | Often soft |
Sharp books post first because they're confident in their lines. Recreational books wait to copy.
Opening vs Closing Lines
| Aspect | Opening Line | Closing Line |
|---|---|---|
| Information | Less (no market input) | More (week of trading) |
| Efficiency | Lower | Higher |
| Edge opportunity | Greater | Lesser |
| Sharp influence | Minimal | Fully incorporated |
Opening lines are where early value lives. Closing lines are where final truth is.
Opening Line Strategies
Bet early for edge. If you have information or models, openers may not reflect it yet.
Fade early sharp moves. Sometimes early moves overcorrect, creating value in the opposite direction.
Track from open to close. CLV measured from open vs from your bet time tells different stories.
Wait for settlement. Some bettors wait for the market to establish a consensus before betting.
Look-Ahead Lines
"Look-ahead" lines are openers posted before the current week ends—sometimes 6-7 days in advance. They're:
- Based on power ratings without current-week results
- Low-limit (books protect against sharp action)
- Potentially inefficient (market hasn't priced recent injuries/performances)
Some sharps specialize in look-ahead betting.
Opening Line Movement
Early line movement signals sharp opinion:
| Movement Pattern | Interpretation |
|---|---|
| Opens -3, quickly moves to -4.5 | Sharp money on favorite |
| Opens -3, stays -3 all week | Balanced or no strong opinion |
| Opens -3, moves to -2.5 | Sharp money on underdog |
| Opens -3, oscillates -2.5 to -3.5 | Mixed sharp opinion |
Tracking opening line movement reveals where sharp money went before public betting obscured it.
Openers in Prediction Markets
On Kalshi, the "opening line" equivalent is:
- Initial price when a market launches
- First trades that establish price discovery
New prediction market listings can be especially inefficient as price discovery happens.
Related Terms
- CLV — Value measured against closing line
- Sharp — Bettors who target openers
- Steam — Movement that changes openers quickly
- Stale Line — Openers that haven't updated with information
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