Dutching Calculator for Prediction Markets
Calculate optimal stake allocation across multiple outcomes on Kalshi, Polymarket, or any prediction market. Calculated to have equal profit no matter which selection wins.
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View Live Edges →What is Dutch Betting?
Dutch betting (or “Dutching”) is a strategy where you spread your stake across multiple selections in the same event so that you win the same amount regardless of which selection wins. It is thought to be named after infamous gambler Dutch Schultz. This technique is particularly powerful in prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket where you can identify multiple outcomes with favorable odds.
How Does the Dutching Calculator Work?
The calculator uses a simple but powerful formula. When you enter multiple market prices (probabilities), it calculates the optimal stake for each outcome inversely proportional to the odds. The key insight is:
Combined Probability = Sum of all market prices
Guaranteed Payout = Investment ÷ Combined Probability
Stake per outcome = Guaranteed Payout × Market Price
If the combined probability is less than 100%, there's a profit opportunity. The lower the combined probability, the higher your potential return.
When to Use Dutching in Prediction Markets
Dutching works best when you have a thesis that narrows the field. For example, if you believe a statistical model like KenPom reliably predicts NCAA tournament winners, you might Dutch the top 3 ranked teams. This is “conditional arbitrage” — guaranteed profit if your thesis holds.
Common use cases include futures markets on Kalshi (Super Bowl winner, NCAA champion, World Series), multi-outcome political markets on Polymarket, and any event where you can confidently eliminate possibilities from the field.
Dutching vs. Traditional Arbitrage
True arbitrage guarantees profit regardless of outcome by exploiting price discrepancies across different platforms. Dutching is different — it guarantees equal profit across your selected outcomes, but you lose everything if an outcome outside your coverage wins. Think of Dutching as a way to efficiently express a multi-outcome thesis rather than a risk-free strategy.