Fading

Fading means betting against something—a team, a trend, or public consensus. "Fade the Chiefs" means bet against the Chiefs. "Fade the public" means bet opposite of where most money is going.

Fading the Public

The most common fading strategy targets public betting patterns:

The theory: squares overreact to narratives, creating value on the other side.

Does Fading Work?

Historically, blanket contrarian strategies showed edge:

• NFL underdogs covered ~52% in early studies
• Heavy public favorites underperformed
• Prime time overs were overbet

However, these edges have compressed as markets became more efficient. Blindly fading the public no longer works like it used to.

Smart Fading

Modern fading requires nuance:

Fade when extreme. 80%+ public on one side may signal value. 60% probably doesn't.

Fade with confirmation. Public on Team A + RLM toward Team B = strong fade signal.

Fade with edge. Your model should support the fade, not just contrarianism.

Fade selectively. Some situations (divisional games, bad teams) see more public overreaction.

What Not to Fade

Fading isn't always smart:

Fading works when public perception diverges from reality. When the public is right, fading costs money.

Fading in Prediction Markets

On Kalshi, fading translates to:

• Selling overpriced YES contracts
• Buying underpriced NO contracts
• Going against sentiment on popular events

Political prediction markets often show fading opportunities when partisans overbet their preferred candidates.

Fading Yourself

Advanced bettors sometimes "fade themselves":

• Track your picks that lose most often
• Identify patterns in your losing bets
• Consider betting opposite in those situations

If you're consistently wrong on primetime overs, maybe fade your own instinct there.

Related Terms

• Tailing — The opposite of fading (following picks)
• Square — Public bettors worth fading
• Reverse Line Movement — Sharp money fading the public
• Contrarian — Broader term for anti-consensus betting