Tailing

Tailing means copying someone else's bets—following their picks without doing your own analysis. You're essentially outsourcing your betting decisions to another source.

Types of Tailing

Source	How It Works	Edge Potential
Sharp moves	Monitor line movement, follow steam	Moderate (late to the party)
Paid picks	Subscribe to touts	Usually negative
Public handicappers	Follow media personalities	Rarely positive
Verified services	Track record-verified sources	Possible if genuine

The quality of tailing depends entirely on who you're following.

The Tailing Problem

When you tail, you face structural disadvantages:

Price degradation: By the time you see the pick, the line may have moved.

Incomplete information: You don't know the bettor's full context, sizing, or thesis.

Selection bias: You see wins advertised, not the full record.

Timing: CLV capture requires speed. Tailing is inherently slow.

If tailing sharps, you might capture some edge—but always at a discount to the original bettor.

Smart Tailing

If you're going to tail, do it intelligently:

Verify track records. Third-party tracked, timestamped records only.

Understand the methodology. Why does this person win? Is it replicable?

Compare to closing line. Do their picks consistently beat the close?

Be fast. The faster you execute after a pick, the more value you capture.

Fade the public. Heavily touted public picks often have negative edge.

Tailing Steam

One sophisticated form of tailing is steam chasing:

1. Monitor real-time odds feeds
2. Detect coordinated line movement
3. Bet at books that haven't adjusted yet

This requires:

• Low-latency data feeds
• Multiple sportsbook accounts
• Automation or extreme speed

It's a legitimate strategy but increasingly difficult as books get faster.

Building Independence

Long-term profitable bettors don't tail—they develop their own edge:

Tailer	Independent Bettor
Reacts to others	Creates original analysis
Captures secondhand edge	Generates primary edge
Limited by source quality	Limited only by skill
Dependent	Self-sufficient

Tailing can be a learning phase, but it's not a destination.

Related Terms

• Originator — The source everyone wants to tail
• Tout — People selling picks to be tailed
• Steam — Sharp activity worth tailing
• Fading — The opposite of tailing