Originator

An originator is the source of original betting information—the person or group that runs the models, does the research, and determines what a line should be. In trading terms, the originator generates alpha. Everyone else is just copying their positions.

Originator vs Follower

The sports betting ecosystem has a clear hierarchy:

Only originators create edge. Everyone else captures diminishing portions of that edge through speed and access.

What Makes an Originator

True originators have:

Proprietary models. Whether statistical, situational, or based on private information, their methodology isn't publicly replicable.

Consistent CLV. They beat the closing line over large sample sizes. This is the proof that their opinions move markets.

Market impact. When they bet, lines move. Books adjust prices based on their action.

Secrecy. Real originators don't sell picks. Their edge would evaporate if their methods were public.

The Originator Economy

Originators typically operate through syndicates:

1. Originator generates the pick and target price
2. Syndicate places coordinated bets across multiple books simultaneously
3. Beards execute bets where syndicate members are limited
4. Profits are split based on contribution and risk

This structure allows originators to bet significant money despite individual account limits.

Fake Originators (Touts)

The sports betting world is full of people claiming to be originators who are actually touts—people selling picks without genuine edge.

Red flags for fake originators:

• Selling picks publicly (real edge isn't for sale)
• Advertising win rates without CLV data
• No verifiable long-term track record
• Guarantees or "locks"

If someone is selling you picks, they're not an originator. They're monetizing attention, not betting skill.

Originator Detection

Books try to identify originators to:

• Adjust lines immediately on their action
• Limit or ban their accounts
• Copy their positions in other markets

The best originators operate through layers of beards and syndicates specifically to avoid detection.

Related Terms

• Sharp — Professional bettors, some of whom are originators
• Steam — Market movement caused by originator action
• Syndicate — Groups that execute originator picks
• Tout — Fake originators who sell picks