Tout
A tout is someone who sells betting picks or predictions. The term is often pejorative because most touts lack genuine edge and make money from selling picks, not from betting themselves.
The Tout Business Model
Touts profit from information asymmetry:
| What They Claim | What's Usually True |
|---|---|
| "72% win rate!" | Cherry-picked timeframe |
| "Guaranteed winners" | No such thing exists |
| "I make millions betting" | Makes money selling picks |
| "Limited spots available" | Creates false scarcity |
If someone actually had consistent 60%+ win rates, they'd bet millions themselves rather than sell $50 picks to strangers.
Red Flags
How to identify touts:
No verifiable track record. Self-reported results with no third-party verification.
Selling picks publicly. Real originators keep edge secret—sharing it destroys it.
Guarantees. "Lock of the century" and similar language. Nothing is guaranteed.
After-the-fact claims. "I told my subscribers to bet X" with no timestamped proof.
High-pressure tactics. "Act now" or "limited time" urgency.
The Math Doesn't Work
Consider a tout's economics:
- Claims 60% win rate at -110
- That's ~8.5% ROI
- On $100 bets, that's $8.50 per bet profit
- Why sell picks for $30 when you could bet $1,000 and make $85?
The math only makes sense if they're not actually winning at betting.
Legitimate Handicappers
Not everyone selling analysis is a scam. Legitimate handicappers:
- Track records verified by independent services
- Transparent methodology
- Realistic claims (55-57% not 70%)
- Make money betting, sell analysis as supplementary income
- Focus on CLV not just win rate
These are rare. The industry is dominated by marketers, not bettors.
Tout Monitoring Services
Third-party services track tout performance:
| Service | Function |
|---|---|
| Verified picks | Timestamp claims before game |
| Historical tracking | Long-term (not cherry-picked) records |
| CLV measurement | Did they beat the closing line? |
Even with verification, most tracked touts show no meaningful edge.
The Survivorship Problem
The tout industry has built-in survivorship bias:
- 1,000 touts start selling picks
- 500 have a "hot" first month by chance
- 100 survive a year looking profitable
- 10 have great 2-year runs purely by variance
- Those 10 get featured as "proven winners"
Random chance creates apparent winners. Verification over large samples is the only solution.
Related Terms
- Sharp — Actual winning bettors (not selling picks)
- Originator — Real edge generators (never sell publicly)
- CLV — The metric that exposes tout claims
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