Public Money

Public money refers to the aggregate betting volume from recreational (square) bettors. Tracking where public money goes—and going the other way—is a classic sharp strategy.

Public Betting Patterns

Public money consistently flows to:

These patterns are predictable enough to trade against.

Ticket % vs Money %

Two metrics measure public action:

When ticket % and money % diverge, you're seeing sharp vs square split.

Example:

• 80% of tickets on Chiefs
• 60% of money on Chiefs
• Interpretation: Sharps are on the opponent

Reverse Line Movement

When public money says one thing but the line moves the other way, that's Reverse Line Movement (RLM)—a key sharp signal.

Books weight sharp money more than public money.

Fading the Public

The classic contrarian strategy:

1. Identify lopsided public betting (70%+)
2. Check for RLM (line moving against public)
3. Bet the unpopular side

This worked better historically. Modern markets are more efficient, but extreme public imbalances still offer opportunities.

Where to Find Public Money Data

Data quality varies. Sharp books' numbers are more meaningful than recreational app data.

Public Money in Prediction Markets

On Kalshi, similar dynamics exist:

• Popular/exciting outcomes get overbet
• Partisan political betting creates imbalances
• Recreational interest clusters on certain markets

Order book data can reveal retail vs institutional positioning.

Related Terms

• Square — The bettors creating public money
• Sharp — Bettors whose money moves lines against public
• Reverse Line Movement — When sharp money overrides public
• Fading — Betting against public money