Unit
A unit is a standardized bet size, typically representing 1% of your total bankroll. Using units allows bettors to discuss sizing without revealing actual dollar amounts and to compare results across different bankroll sizes.
Standard Unit Sizing
Most professional bettors use:
| Sizing | Unit Size | Example ($10K Bankroll) |
|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 1% | $100 |
| Standard | 1-2% | $100-200 |
| Aggressive | 2-3% | $200-300 |
Beginning bettors often use 1% units to limit variance during the learning phase.
Why Units Matter
Bankroll protection: Fixed percentage sizing prevents catastrophic losses. Even a 10-unit downswing only costs 10% of your bankroll.
Scaling: As your bankroll grows, unit size grows proportionally. $100 units at $10K become $500 units at $50K.
Comparison: "I'm up 45 units this season" is meaningful regardless of whether units are $50 or $500.
Variable Unit Sizing
Some bettors adjust unit size based on confidence:
| Confidence | Units | Example Bet |
|---|---|---|
| Standard play | 1 unit | $100 |
| Strong conviction | 2-3 units | $200-300 |
| Max play | 5 units | $500 |
This is essentially manual Kelly Criterion—betting more when edge is larger.
Unit Tracking
Tracking results in units reveals true skill:
| Result | Interpretation |
|---|---|
| +50 units/year | Excellent (5% ROI at 1K bets) |
| +20 units/year | Good (2% ROI) |
| 0 units/year | Breaking even |
| -50 units/year | Losing to vig |
Dollar results can mislead. Someone "up $10K" who bet $1M has terrible ROI. Units normalize for volume.
Units and Variance
Even with edge, expect significant unit swings:
- Standard deviation: ~15-20 units per 100 bets at -110
- Winning streaks: 10+ unit runs are normal
- Losing streaks: 15-20 unit drawdowns happen to everyone
This is why bankroll management matters. You need to survive variance to reach the long-term.
Units in Prediction Markets
On platforms like Kalshi, the unit concept applies directly:
- Total trading capital = bankroll
- Position size = units
- 1 unit = 1% of capital
A $5,000 Kalshi account might use $50 positions (1 unit) as the base sizing.
Related Terms
- Bankroll — The total capital units are derived from
- Kelly Criterion — Mathematical framework for unit sizing
- ROI — Return measured relative to units wagered
- Variance — Why proper unit sizing matters
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