ROI (Return on Investment)

ROI is your profit expressed as a percentage of total amount wagered. It's the universal metric for comparing betting performance regardless of bankroll size or bet volume.

ROI Formula

ROI = (Total Profit ÷ Total Wagered) × 100

Example:

• Wagered: $10,000
• Won: $10,500
• Profit: $500
• ROI: 5%

ROI Benchmarks

ROI	Assessment	Approximate Win % at -110
-5%	Losing to vig	50%
0%	Breaking even	52.4%
2-3%	Solid recreational	53-54%
5%+	Professional level	55%+
10%+	Elite (unsustainable at scale)	57%+

Consistently achieving 3%+ ROI over large samples is genuinely impressive.

ROI vs Win Rate

Win rate alone is misleading. ROI accounts for odds:

Win Rate	Average Odds	ROI
55%	-110	+5%
45%	+150	+12.5%
60%	-200	+0%

You can have high win rate and negative ROI (betting heavy favorites) or low win rate and positive ROI (betting underdogs at plus-money).

ROI Over Time

ROI expectations decrease as sample size increases:

Sample	Realistic ROI Range
100 bets	-30% to +40% (high variance)
500 bets	-10% to +15%
2,000 bets	-5% to +8%
10,000+ bets	-2% to +5%

Long-term positive ROI requires genuine edge.

Tracking ROI

Essential tracking includes:

• Date and event
• Odds at bet time
• Stake size
• Result (W/L/P)
• Running ROI calculation

Spreadsheets work. Dedicated tracking apps are better.

ROI Killers

Common mistakes that destroy ROI:

Mistake	Impact
Parlays	Compounded vig crushes ROI
Not line shopping	2-3% ROI drag
Chasing losses	Turns variance into ruin
High-vig markets	Props, futures

Protecting ROI is often more about avoiding mistakes than finding winners.

ROI in Prediction Markets

On Kalshi, ROI calculation is the same:

• Total deposited and traded
• Total withdrawn or current balance
• Calculate percentage return

Lower vig on prediction markets makes positive ROI more achievable.

Related Terms

• Expected Value — Theoretical ROI per bet
• Edge — What creates positive ROI
• Unit — Alternative performance metric
• CLV — Leading indicator of ROI