Dog (Underdog)
The dog (or underdog) is the team expected to lose. On the spread, dogs receive points (+7). On the moneyline, dogs pay plus-money (+200).
Underdog Notation
| Market | Dog Notation | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Broncos +7 | Broncos can lose by up to 6 and still cover |
| Moneyline | Broncos +200 | $100 bet returns $300 total if Broncos win |
The "+" sign always indicates the underdog or receiving points.
Types of Underdogs
Small dogs (+1 to +3): Near pick'em games. Either team could win.
Moderate dogs (+3.5 to +7): Clear underdog but competitive. Covers possible through close loss.
Large dogs (+7.5 to +14): Significant talent gap. Needs strong performance or favorite letdown.
Longshots (+14+): Major mismatch. Rarely covers, but when it does, the payout compensates.
Are Underdogs Undervalued?
Research on betting market efficiency shows mixed results:
In favor of dogs:
- Public loves chalk, potentially overpricing favorites
- Underdogs only need to not lose badly (easier than winning big)
- Emotional betting inflates favorite prices
Against dogs:
- Sharp money has compressed historical underdog edge
- In-game variance favors favorites (can put games away)
- Closing lines are increasingly efficient
The historical "bet underdogs" strategy has largely been arbitraged away in major markets.
Underdog Strategy
Sharps don't blindly bet underdogs. They:
- Quantify the edge. Model says +240, market says +200 = potential value
- Consider line value. +7.5 might be much better than +7 in NFL
- Watch for steam. Reverse line movement toward dogs is a sharp signal
The goal is finding underdogs priced worse than their actual probability—not just betting dogs because they're dogs.
Dogs in Prediction Markets
On Kalshi, underdog equivalents are contracts priced under 50¢:
- Team A at 30¢ = underdog (pays 3.33x if wins)
- Candidate B at 15¢ = heavy underdog (pays 6.67x if wins)
Low-probability events are often mispriced due to longshot bias—people overpay for lottery-ticket outcomes.
Related Terms
- Chalk — The opposite (heavy favorites)
- Moneyline — Where dog payouts are highest
- Spread — Where dogs receive points
- Longshot Bias — Tendency to overpay for unlikely outcomes
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