Moneyline
A moneyline bet is simply picking which team wins outright—no spread, no handicap. The odds reflect each team's probability of winning, adjusted for vig.
Reading Moneyline Odds
American odds center on $100:
Favorite (negative): How much you bet to win $100
- Chiefs -250 → Bet $250 to win $100
Underdog (positive): How much you win on a $100 bet
- Broncos +200 → Bet $100 to win $200
Converting to Probability
| American Odds | Implied Probability | Calculation |
|---|---|---|
| -250 | 71.4% | 250 / (250 + 100) |
| -150 | 60.0% | 150 / (150 + 100) |
| -110 | 52.4% | 110 / (110 + 100) |
| +100 | 50.0% | 100 / (100 + 100) |
| +150 | 40.0% | 100 / (100 + 150) |
| +250 | 28.6% | 100 / (100 + 250) |
The vig shows up when probabilities sum to more than 100%.
Moneyline vs Spread Strategy
When to bet moneyline vs spread:
| Situation | Better Bet |
|---|---|
| Small favorite (-1 to -3) | Often moneyline (similar risk, simpler) |
| Large favorite (-7+) | Spread (moneyline juice too expensive) |
| Live betting (team behind) | Moneyline (spread may have moved too far) |
| High variance preference | Moneyline underdog (bigger payout) |
Sharps often focus on spreads because the vig is typically lower and edges are cleaner.
Moneyline in Prediction Markets
On Kalshi and Polymarket, all contracts are essentially moneylines:
- Contract price = implied probability
- Buy YES at 40¢ = betting team wins at +150 equivalent
- Buy NO at 60¢ = betting team loses at -150 equivalent
The math is simpler because prices directly represent probabilities (0-100¢ = 0-100%).
Moneyline Parlays
Parlays using moneylines compound quickly:
| Legs | Combined Odds (if all -150) |
|---|---|
| 2 | +178 |
| 3 | +413 |
| 4 | +847 |
Tempting payouts, but the vig compounds with each leg.
Related Terms
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