Point Spread

The point spread (or just "spread") is a handicap that levels the playing field between mismatched teams. The favorite "gives" points while the underdog "receives" them.

How Spreads Work

If the Chiefs are -7 favorites against the Broncos:

The spread creates a roughly 50/50 proposition from a lopsided matchup.

Reading Spread Notation

Favorite: Minus sign, gives points

• Chiefs -7 → Subtract 7 from Chiefs' score to determine cover

Underdog: Plus sign, receives points

• Broncos +7 → Add 7 to Broncos' score to determine cover

The hook: Half-points prevent pushes

• Chiefs -7.5 → Must win by 8+ (no push possible on 7)

Spread vs Moneyline

Spreads turn all games into ~50/50 propositions. Moneylines reflect actual win probability.

Spread Movement

Spreads move based on:

Sharp money: Sharps bet, books adjust Public money: Heavy one-sided action (less impactful) News: Injuries, weather, lineup changes Steam: Coordinated betting across markets

Tracking line movement from open to close reveals where professional money went.

ATS (Against the Spread)

"ATS" means betting against the spread rather than on the moneyline. A team's ATS record shows how often they've covered:

• Team is 8-4 ATS → Covered spread in 8 of 12 games
• Team is 5-7 ATS → Failed to cover in 7 of 12 games

ATS record ≠ win/loss record. A team can be 10-2 straight up but 6-6 ATS if they're consistently overvalued favorites.

Spreads in Prediction Markets

Prediction markets like Kalshi don't use traditional spreads. Instead, they offer:

• Moneyline-equivalent contracts (Team A to win)
• Margin brackets (Team A to win by 7+)
• Total points contracts

The spread concept translates to buying/selling contracts at different probability levels.

Related Terms

• Moneyline — Betting on outright winner (no spread)
• Hook — Half-points in spreads
• Cover — Winning against the spread
• Key Numbers — Critical spread thresholds in NFL