Cover
To cover means to win a bet against the point spread. Covering is independent of who actually wins the game—it's about whether the final margin beats the handicap.
How Covering Works
Favorites cover by winning by more than the spread:
- Chiefs -7: Must win by 8+ to cover
- Chiefs win 31-21 (10-point margin): Covers ✓
- Chiefs win 28-24 (4-point margin): Doesn't cover ✗
Underdogs cover by losing by less than the spread or winning outright:
- Broncos +7: Must lose by 6 or less, or win
- Broncos lose 24-20 (4-point margin): Covers ✓
- Broncos lose 35-21 (14-point margin): Doesn't cover ✗
ATS Records
"ATS" (Against The Spread) records show how often a team covers:
| Team | W-L Record | ATS Record | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | 12-4 | 9-7 ATS | Good team, but overvalued by market |
| Jets | 5-11 | 10-6 ATS | Bad team, but undervalued by market |
ATS record is more relevant than win-loss for spread bettors. A 12-4 team that's 6-10 ATS is losing you money.
Cover Margin
The margin by which you cover matters for bankroll variance but not for the bet itself:
| Result | Bet Outcome | Feeling |
|---|---|---|
| Cover by 14 | Win | Great |
| Cover by 0.5 | Win | Stressful but same payout |
| Miss by 0.5 | Loss | Bad beat |
| Miss by 14 | Loss | Expected |
Binary outcome, variable stress.
Backdoor Covers
A "backdoor cover" happens when a team covers via late, often meaningless scoring:
- You bet Chiefs -7
- Chiefs up 35-14 late
- Opponent scores garbage-time TDs
- Final: 35-28 (7-point margin)
- Doesn't cover—backdoor failure
Conversely, the opponent backer "backdoor covered" thanks to garbage time.
Cover Probability
Approximate cover rates at common spreads:
| Spread | Favorite Cover % | Push % | Dog Cover % |
|---|---|---|---|
| -3 | 46% | 8% | 46% |
| -7 | 48% | 6% | 46% |
| -10 | 49% | 4% | 47% |
Key numbers have higher push rates, affecting cover probability.
Related Terms
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