Key Numbers

Key numbers are final margins that occur disproportionately often in NFL games due to the scoring structure. The most important key numbers are 3 (field goal) and 7 (touchdown), which together account for roughly 25% of all NFL game margins.

Why Key Numbers Exist

NFL scoring is discrete:

• Field goal: 3 points
• Touchdown + extra point: 7 points
• Touchdown + two-point: 8 points
• Safety: 2 points

This creates predictable clustering in final margins:

Games ending with margins of 3 or 7 are dramatically more common than other numbers.

Trading Around Key Numbers

Key numbers affect line value significantly:

Buying off 3:

• Moving from -3 to -2.5 avoids pushing on exactly 3
• This move is worth 15-20 cents of juice to most sharps

Buying through 3:

• Moving from -2.5 to -3.5 gains the push on 3 but loses on exactly 3
• Usually not worth it unless you're getting paid

The 7 trap:

• +7 to +7.5 is valuable (win instead of push on exactly 7)
• -7 to -7.5 is costly (lose instead of push on exactly 7)

Key Numbers in Live Betting

Key numbers matter even more in-game:

When a team leads by exactly 3 or 7 late in the game, the live spread often reflects the difficulty of crossing these thresholds. A team down 7 needs a touchdown just to tie—that's embedded in live pricing.

Key Numbers Don't Exist in Prediction Markets

On platforms like Kalshi, contracts settle at 0 or 100—there's no "margin" concept. However, similar clustering effects exist:

• Elections often have predictable swing patterns
• Sports futures have common probability ranges
• Binary events cluster around psychological thresholds

Understanding where outcomes cluster helps identify value.

Key Number Strategy

When handicapping NFL games:

1. Identify your number. What margin do you expect?
2. Compare to spread. Is the spread near a key number?
3. Evaluate the hook. Is -3 or -3.5 better given your projection?
4. Price the difference. How much is it worth to buy off?

The goal is paying fair value for key number protection.

Related Terms

• Hook — The half-point that matters most at key numbers
• Push — What happens when you land on a key number
• Spread — The market that key numbers affect