Futures

Futures are bets on outcomes decided later in the season—Super Bowl winners, MVP awards, season win totals, etc. They offer large potential payouts but come with significant drawbacks.

Types of Futures

The Futures Problem

Futures have structural issues:

High vig. Championship futures often have 20-40% combined hold. You're paying massively for access.

Capital lockup. Money bet in August isn't returned until February. That's 6 months without access to your bankroll.

Information uncertainty. Injuries, trades, and developments change probabilities. Your edge at bet time may evaporate.

Hedging temptation. Teams you bet early reach playoffs, and you're tempted to hedge away value.

When Futures Make Sense

Despite drawbacks, futures can offer value:

Early information edge. If you know something the market doesn't in Week 1, futures lock it in.

Dutching opportunities. Spread across multiple outcomes at combined probability under 100%.

Long-term thesis. Strong conviction about undervalued teams before public catches on.

Hedge other positions. Futures can offset regular season betting on the same teams.

Futures Math

Example: Super Bowl futures on an 8-team group

The 120% sum means 20% vig. Only bet if your edge exceeds this massive house cut.

Futures on Prediction Markets

Kalshi offers futures-style contracts:

• Championship winner markets
• Award winner markets
• Season milestone markets

Key advantage: prediction market futures often have lower vig than traditional sportsbooks due to exchange dynamics.

Futures Strategy

If betting futures:

1. Bet early. Line value typically decreases as season progresses
2. Size appropriately. High variance = small units
3. Track constantly. Odds change; know when to hedge or add
4. Consider Dutch books. Multiple outcomes can create locked-in edge

Related Terms

• Hold — Particularly high on futures markets
• Dutching — Multi-outcome futures strategy
• Edge — Must exceed high vig to profit on futures